Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 4, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 4, 2026, 10:37 AM to 11:06 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 4, 2026 at 10:37 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 34.5504. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:06 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

23.0529.5436.04Sep 4, 10:37 AM ET11:06 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:37 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

23.0529.5436.04Sep 4, 10:37 AM ET11:06 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:37 AM ET34.5504
Projected value at 11:06 AM ET23.4267
Actual value at 11:06 AM ET27.4609
Projected change across the window-11.1237
Actual change across the window-7.08956
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.57×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.57 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 3 (10:39 AM ET), where they sat 0.00348192 apart, and furthest at bar 9 (10:46 AM ET) with a gap of 6.16349. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 14 (10:51 AM ET), a move of -2.6287. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:38 AM35.737534.5039-1.2336
610:43 AM30.348536.0623+5.71381
1210:49 AM26.002427.7488+1.74644
1810:55 AM24.46622.7202-1.74587
2411:01 AM23.878825.2186+1.33987
2911:06 AM23.426727.4609+4.03417

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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NinjaTrader Stochastics prediction indicator Yes. PredictIndicators runs inside NinjaTrader 8: the predicted MNQ candles and the predicted indicators sit on your own chart, next to the indicators you already use. NinjaTrader 8 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.