Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 4, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 4, 2026, 9:35 AM to 10:04 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 4, 2026 at 9:35 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 22.5496. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:04 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

18.6426.5334.43Sep 4, 9:35 AM ET10:04 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 9:35 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

18.6426.5334.43Sep 4, 9:35 AM ET10:04 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:35 AM ET22.5496
Projected value at 10:04 AM ET31.2976
Actual value at 10:04 AM ET17.9069
Projected change across the window+8.748
Actual change across the window-4.64266
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading21 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.88×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise, while it fell instead. The projection overshot: it called for 1.88 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 21 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 10 (9:44 AM ET), where they sat 6.21318 apart, and furthest at bar 27 (10:02 AM ET) with a gap of 13.7299. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 22 (9:57 AM ET), a move of -1.75285. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:36 AM32.558423.8028-8.75556
69:41 AM35.272128.1477-7.12445
129:47 AM35.093327.0077-8.08556
189:53 AM33.372326.8153-6.557
249:59 AM31.618818.9809-12.6378
2910:04 AM31.297617.9069-13.3907

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.