Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 4, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 4, 2026, 9:34 AM to 10:03 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 4, 2026 at 9:34 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 23.8028. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:03 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

17.2724.1130.96Sep 4, 9:34 AM ET10:03 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 9:34 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

17.2724.1130.96Sep 4, 9:34 AM ET10:03 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:34 AM ET23.8028
Projected value at 10:03 AM ET28.9865
Actual value at 10:03 AM ET16.3533
Projected change across the window+5.18367
Actual change across the window-7.44954
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.70×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise, while it fell instead. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.70 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 9 (9:42 AM ET), where they sat 2.62752 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (10:03 AM ET) with a gap of 12.6332. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 21 (9:55 AM ET), a move of -1.75285. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:35 AM30.264425.1524-5.11197
69:40 AM31.792228.264-3.52817
129:46 AM31.358326.2691-5.08919
189:52 AM30.381326.4005-3.98079
249:58 AM29.801118.1299-11.6712
2910:03 AM28.986516.3533-12.6332

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Buy MT5 predictive ADX Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on MNQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

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MetaTrader how is prediction accuracy measured A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.