Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 4, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 4, 2026, 6:11 AM to 6:40 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 4, 2026 at 6:11 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 32.6799. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:40 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

24.8330.7336.64Sep 4, 6:11 AM ET6:40 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:11 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

24.8330.7336.64Sep 4, 6:11 AM ET6:40 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:11 AM ET32.6799
Projected value at 6:40 AM ET24.2711
Actual value at 6:40 AM ET27.8826
Projected change across the window-8.40883
Actual change across the window-4.79736
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.75×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.75 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 3 (6:13 AM ET), where they sat 3.56619 apart, and furthest at bar 18 (6:29 AM ET) with a gap of 12.4482. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 16 (6:27 AM ET), a move of +1.94383. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:12 AM27.467131.6759+4.20881
66:17 AM26.165631.4905+5.32489
126:23 AM25.443530.8255+5.38191
186:29 AM24.794137.2422+12.4482
246:35 AM24.278729.1145+4.83572
296:40 AM24.271127.8826+3.61147

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Buy NinjaTrader AI ADX PredictIndicators draws the predicted ADX for MNQ up to 30 bars ahead on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts, next to the ADX you already use. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NT8 why do AI indicator predictions change for MNQ A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

NinjaTrader Stochastics prediction indicator Yes. PredictIndicators runs inside NinjaTrader 8: the predicted MNQ candles and the predicted indicators sit on your own chart, next to the indicators you already use. NinjaTrader 8 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.