Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 8:09 PM to 8:38 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 3, 2026 at 8:09 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 16.4396. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:38 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.3716.1920.01Sep 3, 8:09 PM ET8:38 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 8:09 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.3716.1920.01Sep 3, 8:09 PM ET8:38 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:09 PM ET16.4396
Projected value at 8:38 PM ET18.6318
Actual value at 8:38 PM ET20.5284
Projected change across the window+2.19214
Actual change across the window+4.08882
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.54×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.54 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 6 (8:14 PM ET), where they sat 0.0358393 apart, and furthest at bar 10 (8:19 PM ET) with a gap of 4.62878. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (8:38 PM ET), a move of +1.29327. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:10 PM15.816515.6478-0.168662
68:15 PM16.048215.1593-0.888954
128:21 PM16.915113.0518-3.8633
188:27 PM17.7616.0499-1.71017
248:33 PM18.377618.6648+0.287264
298:38 PM18.631820.5284+1.89668

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

MetaTrader 5 ADX AI chart assistant Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on MNQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

Next candle prediction indicator for MT5 on MNQ PredictIndicators is a next candle prediction indicator: it draws the predicted next candles of MNQ, up to 30 bars ahead, on your NinjaTrader 8 or MetaTrader 5 chart and redraws them as each bar closes. Next candle prediction indicator →

NinjaTrader can confidence scores change over time for Micro Nasdaq 100 futures A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.