Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 8:06 PM to 8:35 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 3, 2026 at 8:06 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 15.1171. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:35 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.4416.8621.27Sep 3, 8:06 PM ET8:35 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 8:06 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.4416.8621.27Sep 3, 8:06 PM ET8:35 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:06 PM ET15.1171
Projected value at 8:35 PM ET18.2549
Actual value at 8:35 PM ET21.3364
Projected change across the window+3.13784
Actual change across the window+6.21937
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.50×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.50 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 16 (8:21 PM ET), where they sat 0.0690072 apart, and furthest at bar 27 (8:33 PM ET) with a gap of 3.67039. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 27 (8:33 PM ET), a move of +1.33238. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:07 PM15.358615.4637+0.105063
68:12 PM14.775312.9368-1.83851
128:18 PM15.619314.0063-1.61294
188:24 PM16.742915.4693-1.27369
248:30 PM17.628318.7618+1.13345
298:35 PM18.254921.3364+3.08153

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.