Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 7:10 PM to 7:39 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 3, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 50.9988. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:39 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

23.9136.8849.85Sep 3, 7:10 PM ET7:39 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 7:10 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

23.9136.8849.85Sep 3, 7:10 PM ET7:39 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 7:10 PM ET50.9988
Projected value at 7:39 PM ET22.1684
Actual value at 7:39 PM ET32.6953
Projected change across the window-28.8304
Actual change across the window-18.3035
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.58×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.58 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (7:39 PM ET), where they sat 10.5269 apart, and furthest at bar 5 (7:15 PM ET) with a gap of 21.1998. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 10 (7:20 PM ET), a move of -1.6843. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:11 PM33.435550.9717+17.5362
67:16 PM29.377149.8216+20.4445
127:22 PM26.52942.9097+16.3807
187:28 PM24.40937.159+12.75
247:34 PM23.425335.7336+12.3083
297:39 PM22.168432.6953+10.5269

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.