Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 7:04 PM to 7:33 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 3, 2026 at 7:04 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 49.8216. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:33 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

28.0438.2548.45Sep 3, 7:04 PM ET7:33 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 7:04 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

28.0438.2548.45Sep 3, 7:04 PM ET7:33 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 7:04 PM ET49.8216
Projected value at 7:33 PM ET26.6735
Actual value at 7:33 PM ET27.5546
Projected change across the window-23.1481
Actual change across the window-22.267
Bars moving the same direction23 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.04×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.04 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 79% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 3 (7:06 PM ET), where they sat 0.491891 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (7:04 PM ET) with a gap of 5.06838. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (7:33 PM ET), a move of -1.76439. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:05 PM46.037948.4176+2.37968
67:10 PM45.02142.9097-2.11123
127:16 PM39.210537.159-2.05156
187:22 PM33.241835.7336+2.4918
247:28 PM29.331.6701+2.37012
297:33 PM26.673527.5546+0.881076

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.