Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 7:03 PM to 7:32 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 3, 2026 at 7:03 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 48.4176. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:32 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

27.3937.2447.09Sep 3, 7:03 PM ET7:32 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 7:03 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

27.3937.2447.09Sep 3, 7:03 PM ET7:32 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 7:03 PM ET48.4176
Projected value at 7:32 PM ET26.0649
Actual value at 7:32 PM ET26.4071
Projected change across the window-22.3527
Actual change across the window-22.0106
Bars moving the same direction23 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.02×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.02 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 79% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 9 (7:11 PM ET), where they sat 0.00377689 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (7:03 PM ET) with a gap of 5.25849. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (7:31 PM ET), a move of -1.76439. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:04 PM44.233946.9057+2.67172
67:09 PM42.972343.1426+0.170281
127:15 PM37.299435.8807-1.41874
187:21 PM32.372835.1071+2.73431
247:27 PM28.308130.7762+2.46811
297:32 PM26.064926.4071+0.342166

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.