Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 7:01 PM to 7:30 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 3, 2026 at 7:01 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 45.3417. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:30 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

25.6934.944.1Sep 3, 7:01 PM ET7:30 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 7:01 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

25.6934.944.1Sep 3, 7:01 PM ET7:30 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 7:01 PM ET45.3417
Projected value at 7:30 PM ET25.7131
Actual value at 7:30 PM ET24.4507
Projected change across the window-19.6286
Actual change across the window-20.8909
Bars moving the same direction24 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.94×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.94 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 83% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 13 (7:13 PM ET), where they sat 0.215609 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (7:01 PM ET) with a gap of 5.01839. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 26 (7:27 PM ET), a move of -1.76439. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:02 PM41.119843.6574+2.53751
67:07 PM39.886741.1884+1.30165
127:13 PM34.857735.0733+0.215609
187:19 PM30.527634.5323+4.00479
247:25 PM27.780329.8997+2.11941
297:30 PM25.713124.4507-1.26235

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.