Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 6:01 PM to 6:30 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 3, 2026 at 6:01 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 31.902. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:30 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

20.1326.4832.82Sep 3, 6:01 PM ET6:30 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:01 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

20.1326.4832.82Sep 3, 6:01 PM ET6:30 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:01 PM ET31.902
Projected value at 6:30 PM ET23.2794
Actual value at 6:30 PM ET20.645
Projected change across the window-8.62264
Actual change across the window-11.257
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.77×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.77 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 19 (6:19 PM ET), where they sat 0.222971 apart, and furthest at bar 24 (6:25 PM ET) with a gap of 5.33925. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 21 (6:22 PM ET), a move of -1.68506. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:02 PM32.788432.352-0.436416
66:07 PM32.195429.2439-2.95154
126:13 PM29.089531.3687+2.27914
186:19 PM26.346826.5698+0.222971
246:25 PM24.6219.2807-5.33925
296:30 PM23.279420.645-2.63438

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.