Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 6:01 PM to 6:30 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 3, 2026 at 6:01 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 31.902. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:30 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

20.1326.4832.82Sep 3, 6:01 PM ET6:30 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:01 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

20.1326.4832.82Sep 3, 6:01 PM ET6:30 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:01 PM ET31.902
Projected value at 6:30 PM ET23.2794
Actual value at 6:30 PM ET20.645
Projected change across the window-8.62264
Actual change across the window-11.257
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.77×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.77 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 19 (6:19 PM ET), where they sat 0.222971 apart, and furthest at bar 24 (6:25 PM ET) with a gap of 5.33925. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 21 (6:22 PM ET), a move of -1.68506. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:02 PM32.788432.352-0.436416
66:07 PM32.195429.2439-2.95154
126:13 PM29.089531.3687+2.27914
186:19 PM26.346826.5698+0.222971
246:25 PM24.6219.2807-5.33925
296:30 PM23.279420.645-2.63438

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Live confidence score ADX for NinjaTrader 8 Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on MNQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

How to install a prediction indicator in MT5 for MNQ In NinjaTrader 8 import the zip with Tools → Import → NinjaScript Add On; in MetaTrader 5 run the setup. Then add PredictIndicators to your MNQ chart. How to install →

MetaTrader multi timeframe trend alignment for Micro Nasdaq 100 futures PredictIndicators brings predicted candles to MetaTrader 5: the next 30 MNQ bars appear on your MT5 chart and update in real time. A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. MetaTrader 5 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.