Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 3:35 PM to 4:04 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 3, 2026 at 3:35 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 47.0866. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:04 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

23.0334.4545.87Sep 3, 3:35 PM ET4:04 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 3:35 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

23.0334.4545.87Sep 3, 3:35 PM ET4:04 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:35 PM ET47.0866
Projected value at 4:04 PM ET21.4912
Actual value at 4:04 PM ET23.7318
Projected change across the window-25.5954
Actual change across the window-23.3548
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.10×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.10 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (4:04 PM ET), where they sat 2.24061 apart, and furthest at bar 4 (3:39 PM ET) with a gap of 21.332. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 8 (3:43 PM ET), a move of -1.53937. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:36 PM26.889147.4062+20.5171
63:41 PM24.932644.3886+19.456
123:47 PM23.408937.4994+14.0905
183:53 PM22.951736.9514+13.9997
243:59 PM22.27729.3155+7.03851
294:04 PM21.491223.7318+2.24061

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.