Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 3:30 PM to 3:59 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 3, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 45.8535. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:59 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

19.4531.8244.19Sep 3, 3:30 PM ET3:59 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 3:30 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

19.4531.8244.19Sep 3, 3:30 PM ET3:59 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:30 PM ET45.8535
Projected value at 3:59 PM ET21.5226
Actual value at 3:59 PM ET17.7928
Projected change across the window-24.331
Actual change across the window-28.0608
Bars moving the same direction25 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.87×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.87 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 86% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 27 (3:56 PM ET), where they sat 0.0198134 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (3:30 PM ET) with a gap of 14.6187. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 3 (3:33 PM ET), a move of -1.53937. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:31 PM30.236544.3886+14.152
63:36 PM26.628737.788+11.1592
123:42 PM24.429637.7829+13.3533
183:48 PM22.943630.5772+7.6336
243:54 PM22.347823.7318+1.38405
293:59 PM21.522617.7928-3.72983

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.