Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 3:16 PM to 3:45 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 3, 2026 at 3:16 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 34.6618. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:45 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

16.8325.1833.54Sep 3, 3:16 PM ET3:45 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 3:16 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

16.8325.1833.54Sep 3, 3:16 PM ET3:45 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:16 PM ET34.6618
Projected value at 3:45 PM ET22.8851
Actual value at 3:45 PM ET20.8453
Projected change across the window-11.7767
Actual change across the window-13.8165
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.85×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.85 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 7 (3:22 PM ET), where they sat 0.150304 apart, and furthest at bar 22 (3:38 PM ET) with a gap of 8.25822. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 12 (3:28 PM ET), a move of -1.5065. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:17 PM27.007933.2579+6.25005
63:22 PM26.341726.492+0.150304
123:28 PM24.935520.4525-4.48297
183:34 PM24.10417.138-6.96601
243:40 PM23.910316.3664-7.54396
293:45 PM22.885120.8453-2.03985

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

See live indicator predictions on PredictIndicators.ai →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.