Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 5:27 AM to 5:56 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 3, 2026 at 5:27 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 71.2463. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:56 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

27.851.1774.54Sep 3, 5:27 AM ET5:56 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 5:27 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

27.851.1774.54Sep 3, 5:27 AM ET5:56 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 5:27 AM ET71.2463
Projected value at 5:56 AM ET24.6657
Actual value at 5:56 AM ET28.8297
Projected change across the window-46.5807
Actual change across the window-42.4166
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading21 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.10×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.10 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 21 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (5:56 AM ET), where they sat 4.16405 apart, and furthest at bar 5 (5:32 AM ET) with a gap of 44.998. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 1 (5:28 AM ET), a move of +3.23602. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
15:28 AM35.682674.4824+38.7998
65:33 AM31.468375.7654+44.2971
125:39 AM28.383266.1976+37.8144
185:45 AM26.469255.6015+29.1323
245:51 AM25.489440.7033+15.2139
295:56 AM24.665728.8297+4.16405

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

See live indicator predictions on PredictIndicators.ai →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.