Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 3:00 AM to 3:29 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 3, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 10.7151. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:29 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

11.1615.4519.73Sep 3, 3:00 AM ET3:29 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 3:00 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

11.1615.4519.73Sep 3, 3:00 AM ET3:29 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:00 AM ET10.7151
Projected value at 3:29 AM ET20.3052
Actual value at 3:29 AM ET16.9885
Projected change across the window+9.59013
Actual change across the window+6.27343
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.53×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.53 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 7 (3:06 AM ET), where they sat 0.0846997 apart, and furthest at bar 17 (3:17 AM ET) with a gap of 4.97737. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 25 (3:25 AM ET), a move of +1.20952. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:01 AM11.748110.5868-1.16134
63:06 AM12.946812.8621-0.0846997
123:12 AM15.087514.3857-0.701836
183:18 AM17.468112.7547-4.71334
243:24 AM19.238817.0709-2.1679
293:29 AM20.305216.9885-3.31669

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.