Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 2:58 AM to 3:27 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 3, 2026 at 2:58 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 11.2451. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:27 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

11.8516.3420.83Sep 3, 2:58 AM ET3:27 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 2:58 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

11.8516.3420.83Sep 3, 2:58 AM ET3:27 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:58 AM ET11.2451
Projected value at 3:27 AM ET21.4293
Actual value at 3:27 AM ET16.6662
Projected change across the window+10.1842
Actual change across the window+5.42108
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.88×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.88 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 7 (3:04 AM ET), where they sat 0.894672 apart, and furthest at bar 15 (3:13 AM ET) with a gap of 6.9538. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 23 (3:21 AM ET), a move of +1.20952. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:59 AM13.133511.6082-1.52533
63:04 AM15.219414.3247-0.894672
123:10 AM17.635415.2202-2.41521
183:16 AM19.661114.2789-5.3822
243:22 AM20.800918.9147-1.88615
293:27 AM21.429316.6662-4.7631

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.