Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 2:43 AM to 3:12 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 3, 2026 at 2:43 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 11.9897. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:12 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.6118.4324.24Sep 3, 2:43 AM ET3:12 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 2:43 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.6118.4324.24Sep 3, 2:43 AM ET3:12 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:43 AM ET11.9897
Projected value at 3:12 AM ET24.4214
Actual value at 3:12 AM ET25.0209
Projected change across the window+12.4317
Actual change across the window+13.0312
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.95×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.95 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 1 (2:43 AM ET), where they sat 0.156816 apart, and furthest at bar 14 (2:57 AM ET) with a gap of 3.46198. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 21 (3:04 AM ET), a move of +1.3766. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:44 AM12.18212.7547+0.572772
62:49 AM15.131915.9478+0.815815
122:55 AM19.022416.9885-2.0339
183:01 AM21.437818.8349-2.60294
243:07 AM23.74422.6931-1.0509
293:12 AM24.421425.0209+0.599508

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.