Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 2, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 2, 2026, 11:12 PM to 11:41 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 2, 2026 at 11:12 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 14.9114. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:41 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

15.1621.7628.36Sep 2, 11:12 PM ET11:41 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 11:12 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

15.1621.7628.36Sep 2, 11:12 PM ET11:41 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:12 PM ET14.9114
Projected value at 11:41 PM ET24.398
Actual value at 11:41 PM ET24.1901
Projected change across the window+9.48658
Actual change across the window+9.27869
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.02×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.02 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (11:41 PM ET), where they sat 0.207886 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (11:13 PM ET) with a gap of 8.43017. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 23 (11:35 PM ET), a move of -1.42361. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:13 PM22.70314.2728-8.43017
611:18 PM23.179218.5219-4.65724
1211:24 PM24.12724.8453+0.718347
1811:30 PM24.565929.2433+4.67734
2411:36 PM24.287324.5877+0.300417
2911:41 PM24.39824.1901-0.207886

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.