Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 2, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 2, 2026, 6:13 PM to 6:42 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 2, 2026 at 6:13 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 18.3157. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:42 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

18.822.4126.01Sep 2, 6:13 PM ET6:42 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:13 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

18.822.4126.01Sep 2, 6:13 PM ET6:42 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:13 PM ET18.3157
Projected value at 6:42 PM ET23.0748
Actual value at 6:42 PM ET21.6092
Projected change across the window+4.75903
Actual change across the window+3.29349
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.44×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.44 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 18 (6:30 PM ET), where they sat 0.802824 apart, and furthest at bar 6 (6:19 PM ET) with a gap of 5.9376. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 9 (6:22 PM ET), a move of +1.51753. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:14 PM22.398119.3678-3.03027
66:19 PM25.987420.0498-5.9376
126:25 PM26.260124.4589-1.80111
186:31 PM25.029823.5401-1.48971
246:37 PM24.154220.141-4.01316
296:42 PM23.074821.6092-1.46554

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

See live indicator predictions on PredictIndicators.ai →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.