Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 2, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 2, 2026, 10:11 AM to 10:40 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 2, 2026 at 10:11 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 14.8254. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:40 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

15.6221.527.39Sep 2, 10:11 AM ET10:40 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:11 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

15.6221.527.39Sep 2, 10:11 AM ET10:40 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:11 AM ET14.8254
Projected value at 10:40 AM ET22.5132
Actual value at 10:40 AM ET27.8646
Projected change across the window+7.68775
Actual change across the window+13.0392
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.59×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.59 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 24 (10:34 AM ET), where they sat 0.198653 apart, and furthest at bar 17 (10:28 AM ET) with a gap of 6.57633. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 26 (10:37 AM ET), a move of +1.69565. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:12 AM21.210315.7676-5.44269
610:17 AM22.143618.1103-4.03325
1210:23 AM21.63817.8082-3.82982
1810:29 AM21.842316.3758-5.4665
2410:35 AM22.075323.6407+1.56542
2910:40 AM22.513227.8646+5.35146

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.