Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 2, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 2, 2026, 8:59 AM to 9:28 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 2, 2026 at 8:59 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 44.4778. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:28 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

16.6631.6446.62Sep 2, 8:59 AM ET9:28 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 8:59 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

16.6631.6446.62Sep 2, 8:59 AM ET9:28 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:59 AM ET44.4778
Projected value at 9:28 AM ET26.9022
Actual value at 9:28 AM ET18.0981
Projected change across the window-17.5756
Actual change across the window-26.3798
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.67×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.67 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 1 (8:59 AM ET), where they sat 2.18199 apart, and furthest at bar 17 (9:16 AM ET) with a gap of 18.7409. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 7 (9:06 AM ET), a move of -3.19476. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:00 AM48.021344.5418-3.47952
69:05 AM47.355737.0863-10.2695
129:11 AM40.485522.932-17.5535
189:17 AM34.237715.6954-18.5423
249:23 AM29.411715.3797-14.0319
299:28 AM26.902218.0981-8.80418

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.