Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 2, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 2, 2026, 7:18 AM to 7:47 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 2, 2026 at 7:18 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 38.0758. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:47 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

18.1427.4836.82Sep 2, 7:18 AM ET7:47 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 7:18 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

18.1427.4836.82Sep 2, 7:18 AM ET7:47 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 7:18 AM ET38.0758
Projected value at 7:47 AM ET26.53
Actual value at 7:47 AM ET24.5329
Projected change across the window-11.5458
Actual change across the window-13.5429
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.85×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.85 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 14 (7:31 AM ET), where they sat 0.126538 apart, and furthest at bar 20 (7:38 AM ET) with a gap of 10.6603. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 17 (7:35 AM ET), a move of -2.15134. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:19 AM31.504237.7692+6.26497
67:24 AM31.431537.7149+6.28339
127:30 AM28.905229.9126+1.0074
187:36 AM27.653819.4354-8.21843
247:42 AM26.868619.0699-7.79875
297:47 AM26.5324.5329-1.99711

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.