Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 2, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 2, 2026, 6:49 AM to 7:18 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 2, 2026 at 6:49 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 24.5329. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:18 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

14.8319.9325.04Sep 2, 6:49 AM ET7:18 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:49 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

14.8319.9325.04Sep 2, 6:49 AM ET7:18 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:49 AM ET24.5329
Projected value at 7:18 AM ET19.3825
Actual value at 7:18 AM ET21.3623
Projected change across the window-5.15036
Actual change across the window-3.17054
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.62×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.62 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 14 (7:02 AM ET), where they sat 0.174892 apart, and furthest at bar 4 (6:53 AM ET) with a gap of 10.8032. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 7 (6:56 AM ET), a move of -2.23089. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:50 AM14.239624.7516+10.5121
66:55 AM15.128724.9952+9.86648
127:01 AM16.580116.009-0.571128
187:07 AM18.057519.8095+1.75198
247:13 AM18.945121.256+2.31095
297:18 AM19.382521.3623+1.97982

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.