Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 2, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 2, 2026, 2:55 AM to 3:24 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 2, 2026 at 2:55 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 15.6043. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:24 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

1419.1424.28Sep 2, 2:55 AM ET3:24 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 2:55 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

1419.1424.28Sep 2, 2:55 AM ET3:24 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:55 AM ET15.6043
Projected value at 3:24 AM ET21.0023
Actual value at 3:24 AM ET24.9742
Projected change across the window+5.39802
Actual change across the window+9.36997
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.58×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.58 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 7 (3:01 AM ET), where they sat 0.107123 apart, and furthest at bar 12 (3:07 AM ET) with a gap of 4.43045. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 16 (3:11 AM ET), a move of +1.21858. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:56 AM17.678616.4881-1.1905
63:01 AM16.956117.0633+0.107123
123:07 AM17.795913.3655-4.43045
183:13 AM19.106217.2833-1.82289
243:19 AM20.405821.7091+1.30331
293:24 AM21.002324.9742+3.97195

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.