Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 2, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 2, 2026, 1:58 AM to 2:27 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 2, 2026 at 1:58 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 37.5072. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:27 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

18.4929.6740.85Sep 2, 1:58 AM ET2:27 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 1:58 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

18.4929.6740.85Sep 2, 1:58 AM ET2:27 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:58 AM ET37.5072
Projected value at 2:27 AM ET21.8381
Actual value at 2:27 AM ET18.4593
Projected change across the window-15.6692
Actual change across the window-19.0479
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.82×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.82 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 20 (2:17 AM ET), where they sat 0.382476 apart, and furthest at bar 5 (2:03 AM ET) with a gap of 19.3711. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 18 (2:16 AM ET), a move of -2.26588. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:59 AM24.26439.0173+14.7533
62:04 AM22.442941.7011+19.2582
122:10 AM21.830631.62+9.78947
182:16 AM21.506522.9485+1.44201
242:22 AM21.416617.3646-4.05193
292:27 AM21.838118.4593-3.37872

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.