Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 1, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 1, 2026, 7:51 PM to 8:20 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 1, 2026 at 7:51 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 43.9235. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:20 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

17.0432.5548.06Sep 1, 7:51 PM ET8:20 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 7:51 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

17.0432.5548.06Sep 1, 7:51 PM ET8:20 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 7:51 PM ET43.9235
Projected value at 8:20 PM ET23.5425
Actual value at 8:20 PM ET15.6583
Projected change across the window-20.381
Actual change across the window-28.2652
Bars moving the same direction24 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.72×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.72 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 83% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 19 (8:09 PM ET), where they sat 0.218498 apart, and furthest at bar 6 (7:57 PM ET) with a gap of 15.2713. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 8 (7:59 PM ET), a move of -2.43859. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:52 PM37.601946.0298+8.42797
67:57 PM34.217749.489+15.2713
128:03 PM30.16535.632+5.46695
188:09 PM27.114126.8956-0.218498
248:15 PM25.002619.1345-5.86805
298:20 PM23.542515.6583-7.88418

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.