Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — M2K, 5 minute chart, November 13, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers November 13, 2026, 3:09 PM to 5:34 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On November 13, 2026 at 3:09 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the M2K 5 minute chart read 47.8091. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:34 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

10.6828.0845.47Nov 13, 3:09 PM ET5:34 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 3:09 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

10.6828.0845.47Nov 13, 3:09 PM ET5:34 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:09 PM ET47.8091
Projected value at 5:34 PM ET9.13214
Actual value at 5:34 PM ET22.3344
Projected change across the window-38.6769
Actual change across the window-25.4747
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.52×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.52 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (5:34 PM ET), where they sat 13.2023 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (3:09 PM ET) with a gap of 32.297. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 25 (5:14 PM ET), a move of -2.72415. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:14 PM15.978747.0221+31.0434
63:39 PM17.676545.3956+27.7191
124:09 PM16.061544.1165+28.055
184:39 PM12.424338.8585+26.4342
245:09 PM8.9603331.4589+22.4986
295:34 PM9.1321422.3344+13.2023

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 5 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of M2K activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Download NinjaTrader AI ADX PredictIndicators draws the predicted ADX for M2K up to 30 bars ahead on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts, next to the ADX you already use. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.