Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — M2K, 5 minute chart, November 13, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers November 13, 2026, 2:21 PM to 4:46 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On November 13, 2026 at 2:21 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the M2K 5 minute chart read 46.2908. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:46 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

14.4429.3644.29Nov 13, 2:21 PM ET4:46 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 2:21 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

14.4429.3644.29Nov 13, 2:21 PM ET4:46 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:21 PM ET46.2908
Projected value at 4:46 PM ET13.3002
Actual value at 4:46 PM ET15.3953
Projected change across the window-32.9906
Actual change across the window-30.8956
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.07×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.07 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (4:36 PM ET), where they sat 1.78147 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (2:21 PM ET) with a gap of 29.344. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 15 (3:36 PM ET), a move of -2.72415. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:26 PM17.277345.2254+27.9481
62:51 PM18.900641.0582+22.1576
123:21 PM19.356436.2152+16.8588
183:51 PM14.982923.6204+8.63746
244:21 PM13.28417.7818+4.4978
294:46 PM13.300215.3953+2.09504

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 5 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of M2K activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.