Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — M2K, 5 minute chart, November 12, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers November 12, 2026, 6:34 PM to 8:59 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On November 12, 2026 at 6:34 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the M2K 5 minute chart read 26.6069. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:59 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.0222.2431.45Nov 12, 6:34 PM ET8:59 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:34 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.0222.2431.45Nov 12, 6:34 PM ET8:59 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:34 PM ET26.6069
Projected value at 8:59 PM ET12.0258
Actual value at 8:59 PM ET15.2562
Projected change across the window-14.5811
Actual change across the window-11.3507
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading18 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.28×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.28 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 18 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 27 (8:44 PM ET), where they sat 0.174639 apart, and furthest at bar 10 (7:24 PM ET) with a gap of 9.84861. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 20 (8:14 PM ET), a move of -3.13091. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:39 PM30.753927.5606-3.19325
67:04 PM25.506331.7625+6.2562
127:34 PM19.327328.0798+8.75249
188:04 PM14.870417.8327+2.96239
248:34 PM12.998813.215+0.216234
298:59 PM12.025815.2562+3.23045

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 5 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of M2K activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Automated analysis ADX for NinjaTrader 8 Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on M2K, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

ChatGPT NinjaTrader 8 indicator for Micro Russell 2000 futures Yes. The chat indicator sits on your NinjaTrader 8 or MetaTrader 5 M2K chart: ask where the prediction turns or what the open indicators agree on. It answers questions; it does not place trades. ChatGPT for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

MetaTrader can confidence scores change over time for M2K A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.