Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — M2K, 5 minute chart, November 12, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers November 12, 2026, 9:40 AM to 12:05 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On November 12, 2026 at 9:40 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the M2K 5 minute chart read 27.0234. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:05 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

21.6632.6343.59Nov 12, 9:40 AM ET12:05 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 9:40 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

21.6632.6343.59Nov 12, 9:40 AM ET12:05 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:40 AM ET27.0234
Projected value at 12:05 PM ET20.1922
Actual value at 12:05 PM ET30.9557
Projected change across the window-6.8312
Actual change across the window+3.93227
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.74×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall, while it rose instead. The projection overshot: it called for 1.74 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 22 (11:25 AM ET), where they sat 0.531316 apart, and furthest at bar 8 (10:20 AM ET) with a gap of 13.842. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 14 (10:50 AM ET), a move of -1.93352. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:45 AM38.863128.1169-10.7462
610:10 AM43.06730.5418-12.5252
1210:40 AM41.337734.5273-6.81037
1811:10 AM36.439731.5326-4.90707
2411:40 AM28.599834.6697+6.06995
2912:05 PM20.192230.9557+10.7635

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 5 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of M2K activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.