Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — M2K, 5 minute chart, November 11, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers November 11, 2026, 6:09 PM to 8:34 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On November 11, 2026 at 6:09 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the M2K 5 minute chart read 34.9313. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:34 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

19.0127.836.59Nov 11, 6:09 PM ET8:34 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:09 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

19.0127.836.59Nov 11, 6:09 PM ET8:34 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:09 PM ET34.9313
Projected value at 8:34 PM ET20.314
Actual value at 8:34 PM ET19.2281
Projected change across the window-14.6173
Actual change across the window-15.7032
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.93×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.93 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 29 (8:29 PM ET), where they sat 0.0893885 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (6:09 PM ET) with a gap of 17.0985. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (8:34 PM ET), a move of -1.98658. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:14 PM20.545134.7867+14.2415
66:39 PM31.357336.9804+5.62308
127:09 PM37.770536.2006-1.56996
187:39 PM30.310632.9809+2.67035
248:09 PM21.229827.4026+6.17281
298:34 PM20.31419.2281-1.08586

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 5 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of M2K activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Best NinjaTrader 8 AI ADX Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on M2K, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

How to import a NinjaTrader 8 indicator for M2K In NinjaTrader 8 import the zip with Tools → Import → NinjaScript Add On; in MetaTrader 5 run the setup. Then add PredictIndicators to your M2K chart. How to install →

MetaTrader compare predictions with actual candles for M2K A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.