Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — M2K, 5 minute chart, November 11, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers November 11, 2026, 4:46 PM to 7:11 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On November 11, 2026 at 4:46 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the M2K 5 minute chart read 37.7738. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:11 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

10.4323.2436.05Nov 11, 4:46 PM ET7:11 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 4:46 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

10.4323.2436.05Nov 11, 4:46 PM ET7:11 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:46 PM ET37.7738
Projected value at 7:11 PM ET11.9602
Actual value at 7:11 PM ET19.2804
Projected change across the window-25.8136
Actual change across the window-18.4934
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.40×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.40 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (7:01 PM ET), where they sat 5.91725 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (4:51 PM ET) with a gap of 25.3766. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 21 (6:31 PM ET), a move of -1.98658. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:51 PM12.389637.7662+25.3766
65:16 PM11.633436.2257+24.5922
125:46 PM9.5087431.2495+21.7407
186:16 PM9.5511124.427+14.8759
246:46 PM10.14219.0427+8.9007
297:11 PM11.960219.2804+7.32023

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 5 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of M2K activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Free trial NT8 artificial intelligence ADX Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on M2K, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NinjaTrader predicted candles compared to actual PredictIndicators draws the predicted next 30 candles of M2K on your NinjaTrader 8 chart, to the right of the last bar, and updates them in real time. They are predictions, not certainties. NinjaTrader 8 price prediction indicator →

Is there an indicator that predicts the next M2K candle? Yes. On a NinjaTrader 8 or MT5 M2K chart, PredictIndicators shows the predicted open, high, low and close of the coming bars to the right of the last bar. Next candle prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.