Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini S&P 500, 1 minute chart, November 6, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers November 6, 2026, 3:32 PM to 4:01 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On November 6, 2026 at 3:32 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini S&P 500 1 minute chart read 21.4298. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:01 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

11.7116.2620.82Nov 6, 3:32 PM ET4:01 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 3:32 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

11.7116.2620.82Nov 6, 3:32 PM ET4:01 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:32 PM ET21.4298
Projected value at 4:01 PM ET13.5634
Actual value at 4:01 PM ET16.9833
Projected change across the window-7.86637
Actual change across the window-4.44646
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.77×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.77 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 10 (3:41 PM ET), where they sat 0.176259 apart, and furthest at bar 27 (3:59 PM ET) with a gap of 4.38105. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 3 (3:35 PM ET), a move of -1.59689. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:33 PM17.437719.8455+2.40773
63:38 PM15.909116.0906+0.181586
123:44 PM16.22316.7246+0.501601
183:50 PM12.176113.9021+1.72601
243:56 PM11.106214.562+3.45579
294:01 PM13.563416.9833+3.41991

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini S&P 500 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Free trial predictive AI ADX for NinjaTrader Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on ES, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

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MT5 historical indicator prediction accuracy A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.