Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 3:50 PM to 4:19 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 27, 2026 at 3:50 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 21.6898. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:19 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

17.6520.2722.88Sep 27, 3:50 PM ET4:19 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 3:50 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

17.6520.2722.88Sep 27, 3:50 PM ET4:19 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:50 PM ET21.6898
Projected value at 4:19 PM ET20.9284
Actual value at 4:19 PM ET23.0478
Projected change across the window-0.761485
Actual change across the window+1.35798
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.56×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall, while it rose instead. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.56 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 3 (3:52 PM ET), where they sat 0.226902 apart, and furthest at bar 17 (4:07 PM ET) with a gap of 3.52016. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (4:19 PM ET), a move of +1.62237. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:51 PM22.60721.7837-0.823268
63:56 PM20.867121.2079+0.340791
124:02 PM20.607218.5638-2.04338
184:08 PM20.750517.5364-3.21411
244:14 PM20.88318.7282-2.15481
294:19 PM20.928423.0478+2.11946

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.