Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 11:27 AM to 11:56 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 11:27 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 16.9932. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:56 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

16.9419.7722.6Sep 27, 11:27 AM ET11:56 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 11:27 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

16.9419.7722.6Sep 27, 11:27 AM ET11:56 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:27 AM ET16.9932
Projected value at 11:56 AM ET22.5951
Actual value at 11:56 AM ET22.2253
Projected change across the window+5.60189
Actual change across the window+5.23205
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.07×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.07 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 14 (11:40 AM ET), where they sat 0.0506151 apart, and furthest at bar 4 (11:31 AM ET) with a gap of 3.18142. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 13 (11:40 AM ET), a move of +1.28498. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:28 AM19.789818.0491-1.74073
611:33 AM19.329317.1193-2.20993
1211:39 AM20.009618.7781-1.23146
1811:45 AM20.770122.5443+1.77415
2411:51 AM21.637420.0123-1.62516
2911:56 AM22.595122.2253-0.369836

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.