Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 10:01 AM to 10:30 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 27, 2026 at 10:01 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 40.7843. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:30 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

1828.9939.98Sep 27, 10:01 AM ET10:30 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:01 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

1828.9939.98Sep 27, 10:01 AM ET10:30 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:01 AM ET40.7843
Projected value at 10:30 AM ET23.3285
Actual value at 10:30 AM ET18.8824
Projected change across the window-17.4558
Actual change across the window-21.9019
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.80×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.80 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 17 (10:17 AM ET), where they sat 1.49517 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (10:01 AM ET) with a gap of 18.3821. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 17 (10:18 AM ET), a move of -2.90735. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:02 AM23.310341.1103+17.8
610:07 AM23.181539.0857+15.9042
1210:13 AM22.240834.4972+12.2564
1810:19 AM22.512118.2533-4.25878
2410:25 AM22.873216.523-6.35022
2910:30 AM23.328518.8824-4.44606

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Buy AI ADX for NinjaTrader PredictIndicators draws the predicted ADX for BTCUSD up to 30 bars ahead on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts, next to the ADX you already use. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

How do I add the BTCUSD prediction indicator in NinjaTrader 8? In NinjaTrader 8 import the zip with Tools → Import → NinjaScript Add On; in MetaTrader 5 run the setup. Then add PredictIndicators to your BTCUSD chart. How to install →

MetaTrader ADX prediction accuracy for BTCUSD A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.