Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 8:53 AM to 9:22 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 8:53 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 15.0372. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:22 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.8618.4122.97Sep 27, 8:53 AM ET9:22 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 8:53 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.8618.4122.97Sep 27, 8:53 AM ET9:22 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:53 AM ET15.0372
Projected value at 9:22 AM ET22.9578
Actual value at 9:22 AM ET21.4351
Projected change across the window+7.92062
Actual change across the window+6.39795
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.24×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.24 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (9:22 AM ET), where they sat 1.52267 apart, and furthest at bar 17 (9:10 AM ET) with a gap of 8.70445. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (9:21 AM ET), a move of +1.33829. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:54 AM20.888414.3821-6.50635
68:59 AM21.456614.2543-7.20221
129:05 AM22.305716.3251-5.98052
189:11 AM23.200115.4147-7.78547
249:17 AM23.46316.3058-7.15714
299:22 AM22.957821.4351-1.52267

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.