Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 8:49 AM to 9:18 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 8:49 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 13.2951. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:18 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

14.1120.1426.18Sep 27, 8:49 AM ET9:18 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 8:49 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

14.1120.1426.18Sep 27, 8:49 AM ET9:18 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:49 AM ET13.2951
Projected value at 9:18 AM ET21.3453
Actual value at 9:18 AM ET26.9904
Projected change across the window+8.05023
Actual change across the window+13.6954
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.59×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.59 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 25 (9:13 AM ET), where they sat 0.139577 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (8:49 AM ET) with a gap of 5.69428. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 27 (9:16 AM ET), a move of +1.63823. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:50 AM18.510413.7569-4.75345
68:55 AM18.285816.1479-2.13792
129:01 AM18.993114.4681-4.52504
189:07 AM19.603916.5958-3.00808
249:13 AM20.47220.3324-0.139577
299:18 AM21.345326.9904+5.64513

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.