Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 5:53 AM to 6:22 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 27, 2026 at 5:53 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 36.6538. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:22 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

28.136.9145.72Sep 27, 5:53 AM ET6:22 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 5:53 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

28.136.9145.72Sep 27, 5:53 AM ET6:22 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 5:53 AM ET36.6538
Projected value at 6:22 AM ET26.9169
Actual value at 6:22 AM ET30.9672
Projected change across the window-9.73692
Actual change across the window-5.6866
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.71×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.71 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 4 (5:56 AM ET), where they sat 0.526652 apart, and furthest at bar 15 (6:08 AM ET) with a gap of 13.1152. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 17 (6:10 AM ET), a move of -3.1959. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
15:54 AM42.62338.9785-3.64454
65:59 AM41.919145.7443+3.82524
126:05 AM36.264146.4025+10.1385
186:11 AM31.703937.6089+5.905
246:17 AM28.846732.1989+3.35221
296:22 AM26.916930.9672+4.05032

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Best artificial intelligence ADX for MT5 PredictIndicators draws the predicted ADX for BTCUSD up to 30 bars ahead on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts, next to the ADX you already use. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

How to import a NinjaTrader 8 indicator for BTCUSD In NinjaTrader 8 import the zip with Tools → Import → NinjaScript Add On; in MetaTrader 5 run the setup. Then add PredictIndicators to your BTCUSD chart. How to install →

MetaTrader which indicators can AI predict for BTCUSD PredictIndicators brings predicted candles to MetaTrader 5: the next 30 BTCUSD bars appear on your MT5 chart and update in real time. A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. MetaTrader 5 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.