Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 5:48 AM to 6:17 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 5:48 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 44.5123. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:17 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

26.2135.9145.6Sep 27, 5:48 AM ET6:17 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 5:48 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

26.2135.9145.6Sep 27, 5:48 AM ET6:17 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 5:48 AM ET44.5123
Projected value at 6:17 AM ET24.9107
Actual value at 6:17 AM ET29.2185
Projected change across the window-19.6016
Actual change across the window-15.2939
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.28×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.28 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (6:17 AM ET), where they sat 4.30776 apart, and furthest at bar 11 (5:59 AM ET) with a gap of 16.3684. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 13 (6:01 AM ET), a move of -3.1959. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
15:49 AM30.678445.0876+14.4092
65:54 AM32.979945.6668+12.6868
126:00 AM29.614643.651+14.0364
186:06 AM26.853931.9047+5.05088
246:12 AM25.693431.3621+5.66868
296:17 AM24.910729.2185+4.30776

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.