Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 1:55 AM to 2:24 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 1:55 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 45.424. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:24 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

15.6229.5843.55Sep 27, 1:55 AM ET2:24 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 1:55 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

15.6229.5843.55Sep 27, 1:55 AM ET2:24 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:55 AM ET45.424
Projected value at 2:24 AM ET24.2529
Actual value at 2:24 AM ET19.4461
Projected change across the window-21.1712
Actual change across the window-25.9779
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.81×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.81 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 11 (2:05 AM ET), where they sat 0.287796 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (1:56 AM ET) with a gap of 14.0748. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 6 (2:01 AM ET), a move of -2.80323. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:56 AM30.662644.7373+14.0748
62:01 AM26.312533.242+6.92956
122:07 AM24.135221.0743-3.06092
182:13 AM24.22714.4076-9.8194
242:19 AM24.432916.1497-8.28314
292:24 AM24.252919.4461-4.80672

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.