Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 12:41 AM to 1:10 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 27, 2026 at 12:41 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 33.1111. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:10 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

18.827.2235.65Sep 27, 12:41 AM ET1:10 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 12:41 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

18.827.2235.65Sep 27, 12:41 AM ET1:10 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:41 AM ET33.1111
Projected value at 1:10 AM ET24.823
Actual value at 1:10 AM ET17.6657
Projected change across the window-8.28811
Actual change across the window-15.4454
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading23 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.54×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.54 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 23 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 22 (1:02 AM ET), where they sat 0.255188 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (1:10 AM ET) with a gap of 7.15728. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 11 (12:52 AM ET), a move of +2.20209. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:42 AM36.778133.9514-2.82674
612:47 AM33.954734.8138+0.85913
1212:53 AM29.681535.4578+5.77631
1812:59 AM27.712430.9333+3.22095
241:05 AM26.290521.6394-4.65107
291:10 AM24.82317.6657-7.15728

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Download AI ADX for NinjaTrader 8 PredictIndicators draws the predicted ADX for BTCUSD up to 30 bars ahead on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts, next to the ADX you already use. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NinjaTrader can confidence scores change over time for BTCUSD A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

How to install an indicator in MetaTrader 5 for Bitcoin Download PredictIndicators for your platform, activate the 3 day free licence and add it to your BTCUSD chart: the predicted candles appear right away. How to install →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.