Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 12:35 AM to 1:04 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 12:35 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 34.8138. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:04 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

18.2626.3234.38Sep 27, 12:35 AM ET1:04 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 12:35 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

18.2626.3234.38Sep 27, 12:35 AM ET1:04 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:35 AM ET34.8138
Projected value at 1:04 AM ET26.3209
Actual value at 1:04 AM ET18.7187
Projected change across the window-8.49284
Actual change across the window-16.0951
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.53×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.53 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 15 (12:49 AM ET), where they sat 0.222081 apart, and furthest at bar 26 (1:01 AM ET) with a gap of 9.41223. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 5 (12:40 AM ET), a move of +2.20209. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:36 AM31.671833.8306+2.15885
612:41 AM32.17435.4578+3.2838
1212:47 AM28.769830.9333+2.16353
1812:53 AM26.895521.6394-5.25609
2412:59 AM26.62517.3295-9.29551
291:04 AM26.320918.7187-7.60228

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.