Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 8:42 PM to 9:11 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 26, 2026 at 8:42 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 38.9892. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:11 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

19.0628.437.74Sep 26, 8:42 PM ET9:11 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 8:42 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

19.0628.437.74Sep 26, 8:42 PM ET9:11 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:42 PM ET38.9892
Projected value at 9:11 PM ET27.6447
Actual value at 9:11 PM ET19.6381
Projected change across the window-11.3444
Actual change across the window-19.3511
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.59×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.59 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 8 (8:49 PM ET), where they sat 0.0767805 apart, and furthest at bar 18 (9:00 PM ET) with a gap of 12.4546. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 2 (8:44 PM ET), a move of -2.60713. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:43 PM34.470236.5683+2.09804
68:48 PM34.408433.2829-1.12548
128:54 PM33.280428.5763-4.70406
189:00 PM31.424518.9699-12.4546
249:06 PM29.806418.4385-11.3679
299:11 PM27.644719.6381-8.00667

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Live confidence score ADX for MT5 PredictIndicators draws the predicted ADX for BTCUSD up to 30 bars ahead on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts, next to the ADX you already use. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

How reliable is the BTCUSD price prediction indicator? A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Next candle prediction indicator for MT5 on BTCUSD PredictIndicators is a next candle prediction indicator: it draws the predicted next candles of BTCUSD, up to 30 bars ahead, on your NinjaTrader 8 or MetaTrader 5 chart and redraws them as each bar closes. Next candle prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.