Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 8:32 PM to 9:01 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 26, 2026 at 8:32 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 33.4076. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:01 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

18.7325.6132.48Sep 26, 8:32 PM ET9:01 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 8:32 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

18.7325.6132.48Sep 26, 8:32 PM ET9:01 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:32 PM ET33.4076
Projected value at 9:01 PM ET26.0127
Actual value at 9:01 PM ET20.0399
Projected change across the window-7.39498
Actual change across the window-13.3677
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.55×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.55 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 26 (8:57 PM ET), where they sat 0.252291 apart, and furthest at bar 16 (8:48 PM ET) with a gap of 9.05306. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (9:00 PM ET), a move of -2.13185. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:33 PM30.560131.7254+1.1653
68:38 PM27.868223.3527-4.51548
128:44 PM26.917119.3157-7.60138
188:50 PM26.651818.1732-8.47858
248:56 PM26.271424.9119-1.35951
299:01 PM26.012720.0399-5.97275

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.