Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 12, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 12, 2026, 12:04 PM to 12:33 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 12, 2026 at 12:04 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 35.8137. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:33 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.6925.6437.58Sep 12, 12:04 PM ET12:33 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 12:04 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.6925.6437.58Sep 12, 12:04 PM ET12:33 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:04 PM ET35.8137
Projected value at 12:33 PM ET23.1691
Actual value at 12:33 PM ET12.0876
Projected change across the window-12.6446
Actual change across the window-23.7261
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.53×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.53 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 22 (12:25 PM ET), where they sat 0.500309 apart, and furthest at bar 3 (12:07 PM ET) with a gap of 15.3205. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 22 (12:26 PM ET), a move of -2.21465. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:05 PM23.362336.734+13.3717
612:10 PM23.990337.1363+13.146
1212:16 PM23.539533.5879+10.0484
1812:22 PM22.756428.5514+5.79503
2412:28 PM21.984717.9682-4.01649
2912:33 PM23.169112.0876-11.0815

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Chart reader ADX for NinjaTrader PredictIndicators draws the predicted ADX for BTCUSD up to 30 bars ahead on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts, next to the ADX you already use. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

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NinjaTrader multi timeframe trend alignment for Bitcoin Yes. PredictIndicators runs inside NinjaTrader 8: the predicted BTCUSD candles and the predicted indicators sit on your own chart, next to the indicators you already use. NinjaTrader 8 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.