Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 12, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 12, 2026, 11:34 AM to 12:03 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 12, 2026 at 11:34 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 11.839. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:03 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.3616.2420.12Sep 12, 11:34 AM ET12:03 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 11:34 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.3616.2420.12Sep 12, 11:34 AM ET12:03 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:34 AM ET11.839
Projected value at 12:03 PM ET19.9059
Actual value at 12:03 PM ET17.8094
Projected change across the window+8.06693
Actual change across the window+5.97043
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.35×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.35 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (12:03 PM ET), where they sat 2.0965 apart, and furthest at bar 18 (11:52 AM ET) with a gap of 8.2302. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (12:03 PM ET), a move of +1.06046. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:35 AM19.554412.6043-6.95014
611:40 AM19.7515.0864-4.66361
1211:46 AM19.880614.9661-4.91447
1811:52 AM20.200911.9707-8.2302
2411:58 AM20.417516.9305-3.48697
2912:03 PM19.905917.8094-2.0965

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Download predictive ADX for MT5 PredictIndicators draws the predicted ADX for BTCUSD up to 30 bars ahead on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts, next to the ADX you already use. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

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MetaTrader are AI indicators useful for day trading Yes. The same PredictIndicators predictions run on MetaTrader 5 charts, with one licence covering MT5 and NinjaTrader 8. MetaTrader 5 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.