Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 12, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 12, 2026, 11:23 AM to 11:52 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 12, 2026 at 11:23 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 14.5941. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:52 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.818.9425.09Sep 12, 11:23 AM ET11:52 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 11:23 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.818.9425.09Sep 12, 11:23 AM ET11:52 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:23 AM ET14.5941
Projected value at 11:52 AM ET20.3646
Actual value at 11:52 AM ET25.9168
Projected change across the window+5.77058
Actual change across the window+11.3227
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading23 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.51×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.51 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 23 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 22 (11:44 AM ET), where they sat 0.0500673 apart, and furthest at bar 7 (11:30 AM ET) with a gap of 6.26518. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 20 (11:43 AM ET), a move of +1.22988. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:24 AM18.444314.9661-3.47817
611:29 AM18.198912.7124-5.48647
1211:35 AM18.659116.1791-2.48001
1811:41 AM19.535717.8094-1.72632
2411:47 AM20.165821.3545+1.18864
2911:52 AM20.364625.9168+5.55214

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.