Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 5, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 5, 2026, 6:08 PM to 6:37 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 5, 2026 at 6:08 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 29.7064. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:37 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.1320.928.66Sep 5, 6:08 PM ET6:37 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:08 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.1320.928.66Sep 5, 6:08 PM ET6:37 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:08 PM ET29.7064
Projected value at 6:37 PM ET19.8462
Actual value at 6:37 PM ET17.3551
Projected change across the window-9.86016
Actual change across the window-12.3513
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.80×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.80 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 6 (6:13 PM ET), where they sat 0.00325396 apart, and furthest at bar 19 (6:27 PM ET) with a gap of 8.20668. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 1 (6:09 PM ET), a move of -2.04169. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:09 PM22.47927.6647+5.18568
66:14 PM20.999619.9151-1.08452
126:20 PM20.155117.9152-2.23993
186:26 PM20.391913.7375-6.6544
246:32 PM20.111715.6262-4.48555
296:37 PM19.846217.3551-2.49117

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Free trial AI ADX for MetaTrader Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on BTCUSD, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

MetaTrader predicted ATR and candle ranges for BTCUSD Yes. The same PredictIndicators predictions run on MetaTrader 5 charts, with one licence covering MT5 and NinjaTrader 8. MetaTrader 5 price prediction indicator →

How to install an indicator in MetaTrader 5 for Bitcoin In NinjaTrader 8 import the zip with Tools → Import → NinjaScript Add On; in MetaTrader 5 run the setup. Then add PredictIndicators to your BTCUSD chart. How to install →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.